Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen is brewing off the coast of Cancun in Mexico. With a trough digging towards the west and high pressure towards the east, this system is expected to be funneled northward, strengthening over warm Gulf waters as it goes. It could become a tropical storm by Sunday night. If so, it will be named Tropical Storm Michael.
There will be some wind shear affecting this storm. Right now it looks like Fourteen may stay below hurricane criteria, but fine details will be hard to nail down until the system has fully formed.
The most likely path for this system takes it between New Orleans and Tallahassee. Arrival may be as early as Wednesday, bringing heavy rain and some windy conditions to the Gulf Coast.